Archives for March 2016

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Big Week for the Fed

Let's See What HappensThe week of the Ides of March has a ton of economic information ready to be released. But unlike Julius Caesar, traders don’t necessarily need to beware. Retail sales info from February is coming out, as are the housing numbers, the inflation report, the Consumer Sentiment Index, job numbers, industrial production, and more. Watching these numbers might be a little tedious for those that are heavily involved in technical analysis, but the information that will be revealed will give us a thorough look at the U.S. economy’s overall state of health. This will be a huge help when it comes to deciding the overall tone that trades should take on for the coming month.

The first place to look is at what the best analysts are predicting ahead of time. Typically, these predictions are already taken into account in the market’s tone. If things proceed right at the analysts’ thoughts, little to no changes occur. However, when things start to deviate from the predictions, wild swings in the market can occur, and this leaves open opportunity for traders to take advantage of. If you aren’t paying attention to the reports and what’s expected from them, then you are leaving yourself open to unnecessary losses.

The Federal Reserve has a policy meeting beginning on Tuesday, March 15th, and what comes out of this will be likely to set the tone of the markets for the rest of the month. Until a statement is released at the conclusion of this meeting—most likely on Wednesday—traders are likely to be very cautious. As you start looking at binary options setups for the week, keep this in mind. Cautious tends to equal sideways motion, and for most binary traders, this is a clear warning to stay out of the marketplace until some sort of decision is reached. No news does not equal good news in this instance. If you do trade, be sure to limit the time before expiry and perhaps even be ready to scale down your risk per trade. Sideways markets can still be profitable, but the uncertainty factor goes up dramatically. Looking for ranges, and then taking advantage of them, is the clearest way to stay ahead of the game here, but even this can be risky if you aren’t paying attention to the news. Gravitating toward other markets where more information is currently available, such as the Forex marketplace, is a good idea for some. You can trade currencies through binary options, but the upcoming news will also affect the price of the U.S. dollar, so be sure that you have timely updates.

The other thing to be on the lookout for is if the Fed raises rates again. This is unlikely according to many, because if they do, volatility will increase dramatically. This is what happened after the December rate hike, and a sense of stability is just beginning to appear within the marketplace—three months later. Raising rates again would create further issues with the stock market, and many investors are not prepared to handle this. It’s very unlikely that the Fed is too concerned about individual investors, but the confidence levels in the market are something that they do consider, and the evidence points to the fact that this is only now just beginning to rise. Still, paying attention to the Fed’s decisions will be vital to your success. However, if long term stability must be bought at the cost of short term volatility, the former will always be chosen by the Fed, and for this reason, something unpredictable can happen. Having a plan for that, just in case, is a must.

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